The Oscars!

Introduction

Welcome to the Oscars! I’m a bit down on the films this year, but it’s still going to be a great night. For each award there will be a confidence level. It ranges from 23 to 1 with 23 being the most confident pick and 1 being the least confident pick.

It will also show you who I think is going to win in addition to who I would want to win.

Films That Just Missed, But You Shouldn’t Miss Them

Deadpool & Wolverine- To be honest I’m not sure where it could have even been nominated. But the 2nd highest grossing film and one of the best of 2024 didn’t get any love at all.

Moana 2- Look I didn’t love this film. But it’s a bit surprising to see it completely snubbed considering it’s Disney and has made over $1 billion now worldwide.

Gladiator 2- So, this wasn’t a total snub as it did receive 1 nomination. However, a bit shocking to not see several nominations. It was fairly well received by both audiences and critics, and it certainly has star power.

Late Night with the Devil- While this isn’t a huge film, it was one that I really enjoyed. Would have loved to see an acting nomination for David Dastmalchian or a writing nomination.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov- Anora: Honestly, he was my favorite character in the film. While he seemed rugged and tough at the beginning, he turned out to be a character full of thought and emotion. Well done.

Kieran Culkin- A Real Pain: Absolutely loved his performance. Had no idea what to expect going into this film. It felt very real and authentic. Culkin’s character was a big reason why the film had this feel. I never would have guessed the little cousin from Home Alone would get nominated for an Oscar one day.

Edward Norton- A Complete Unknown: Who knew that Norton could pull off an old folk singer so well. His character was very innocent and that’s not what I’m used to from Norton. He also could sing much better than I would have ever thought.

Guy Pearce- The Brutalist: Guy hasn’t been in much that was relevant lately. I had actually kind of forgotten about him. This was a very strong performance. He was a character you would hate one minute and love the next. A big reason why this film had the feel that it did.

Jeremy Strong- The Apprentice: Great performance here. Admittedly I don’t know much about Roy Cohn or how he acted. But this certainly was a different Jeremy Strong than I was used to.

Biggest Snub- A little tough here. Denzel Washington from Gladiator II, but also Stanley Tucci from Conclave. This category is stacked this year.

Actual Winner: Kieran Culkin (23 Confidence)

My Winner: Kieran Culkin

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro- A Complete Unknown: Holy cow this girl can sing! She was Dylan’s on and off love interest throughout the film. Her character always seemed a little upset with the way the world was treating her. She was much like Dylan in that way. These were not overly happy characters. Great job, but no shot here.

Ariana Grande- Wicked: I must say I wasn’t overly excited to watch Wicked. I have never really been a big fan of Ariana. I was shocked to watch her in this role. She was perfect for it. Her portrayal of Galinda was spot on. And of course, we all knew she could sing.

Felicity Jones- The Brutalist: The second nomination for Felicity, but the first in 10 years. Jones was good in this role, but not the role that you remember from this film. To me she was 4th or 5th best in this film.

Isabella Rossellini- Conclave: This one feels a bit forced. It wasn’t that Rossellini didn’t do a good job. The issue is the story, and plot simply didn’t go through her character much. She was such a small role that it had to be absolutely powerful to really get noticed and it wasn’t that.

Zoe Saldana- Emilia Perez: I have to admit that she was about the only thing about the film that I liked. She did a great job, especially with her singing and dancing. Just so unsure about the film in general.

Biggest Snub- Margaret Qualley from The Substance.

Actual Winner: Zoe Saldana (22 Confidence)

My Winner: Ariana Grande

Best Original Screenplay

Anora: I will give this film some credit for its originality. I thought the story was interesting and well worth watching. I simply can’t get past the first 30 minutes or so. I would say you could blame the director for expanding on what was written except for the fact that the writer and director are the same for this film.

The Brutalist: The story doesn’t sound all that interesting, but the way it was told had you wanting more. The film is long, but didn’t feel long. Tremendous dialogue and the amazing acting certainly didn’t hurt.

A Real Pain: Absolutely loved this story. Jesse Eisenberg really knocked it out of the park. The story here follows two cousins touring Poland who are trying to discover their heritage and also find their grandmother’s house. The dialogue makes this film feel real and authentic. Job well done.

September 5: A real shame that this film didn’t get more love from the Academy. It deserved more. Great writing here keeping the story suspenseful and always wanting to know what was coming next. I believe this was easily 1 of the best 10 films this year.

The Substance: People may agree or disagree on this film in general. But one thing you can’t argue with it is the originality. The story is fascinating and very original from anything I’ve seen in the past. Job well done here.

Biggest Snub- Challengers

Actual Winner- Anora (19 Confidence)

My Winner- September 5

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Couple Unknown: This is a film about the story of Bob Dylan’s life. I enjoyed the dialogue between Dylan and many of the people throughout his life. Not sure how much of that was taken from what he actually said or if it was simply a representation of what he might have said. Either way, it was one of the easier 2025 Oscar films to watch.

Conclave: I have not read the book, but the story here is fairly interesting. There are several twists and turns throughout the film. And while everything isn’t a total mystery, the story does leave you guessing and wondering what will happen next. There is also some character development that plays into the story well.

Emilia Perez: This film is not my favorite. In fact, much of the audience didn’t like this film. However, the critics mostly enjoyed it. It’s a very bizarre story that just doesn’t seem to resonate with most that watch it.

Nickel Boys: Very tough story about a “school” that was abusing and even killing kids. It’s based on a true story, but a WHOLE LOT was changed. This isn’t a pick me up type of story, but it’s well done.

Sing Sing: Great, great story about a prisoner who starts a drama department and puts on plays for the other inmates. Fascinating story based on true events. Really enjoyed this film and it made you feel for the inmates. Probably not going to win but was very well done.

Biggest Snub- Wicked

Actual Winner: Conclave (20 Confidence)

My Winner: Sing Sing
Best Achievement in Cinematography

The Brutalist: Loved the visual side of this film. Plenty of cool shots and amazing imagery. First time nomination here for Lol Crawley and really his first big film. The favorite to win the award.

Dune: Part Two: This is certainly a visual film. There’s no doubt about that. You have to think Dune: Part Two has a decent chance based on the fact that Part One won this Oscar a couple of years ago. Perhaps that will give the Academy a reason to look elsewhere as we’ve seen in the past.

Emilia Perez: I don’t see how this has much chance here. It wasn’t something that caught my eye for sure.

Maria: This film was more about the angles than the movement of the camera. There were quite a few shots where the camera stayed still and gave us an interesting angle of what was happening. I enjoyed the film, but it has no shot here.

Nosferatu: I always enjoy watching a film like this. The way it is filmed and the art behind it certainly add to the feel of the film. This doesn’t always work and sometimes leads to more confusion than anything. However, this film does it very well and certainly adds to the creepy, scary tone of the film.

Biggest Snub- Holy smokes how did The Nickel Boys get snubbed here. NO CHANCE it should have been left off this list.

Actual Winner: The Brutalist (14 Confidence)

My Winner: Nosferatu
Best Achievement in Costume Design

A Complete Unknown: There had to be a 5th nomination and so this was it. This film feels out classed by the other 4 in this category.

Conclave: The costumes here looked very authentic, there just wasn’t much original about them. Not a whole lot can be done when you are replicating nuns, priests and cardinals.

Gladiator II: Great work here. Picked up right where the previous film left off. The original Gladiator won this Oscar, can Gladiator II follow suit? Probably not, but job well done.

Nosferatu: Fantastic job here. All the gothic looks really nailed it. Not to mention all the fancy dresses and suits. This film nails it, but… Wicked is just too tough to beat here.

Wicked: This should be one of the easiest choices of the evening. Wicked’s costumes were epic. The film is also very long so there were LOTS of chances to put creative outfits on screen. Would be a major shock to see this one not win here.

Biggest Snub: Dune: Part 2

Actual Winner: Wicked (21 Confidence)

My Winner: Wicked
Best Achievement in Sound

A Complete Unknown: Musical films are always beloved by the sound critics. This is no different here with A Complete Unknown. Apparently syncing the music to the film is much harder than it looks to all of us.

Dune: Part Two: Dune: Part One won this same category just three years ago. Certainly, feels like Part Two will win as well. Don’t ever count out a musical like Wicked, but this category feels like it will go the way of Dune.

Emilia Perez: Like Wicked and A Complete Unknown this film likely received the nomination because of the musical side of things.

Wicked: As I mentioned above, the sound critics love musical films. And Wicked certainly qualifies as that. Wicked is a bit of a rare blend though as it has to mix in sounds outside the norm in this fantasy type of film. This category is still close enough for Wicked to pull it out.

The Wild Robot: Love to see this nomination because the film is amazing, but it has no shot here.

Biggest Snub: Alien Romulus.
Actual Winner: Dune: Part Two (11 Confidence)
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My Winner: Wicked
Best Achievement in Film Editing

Anora: Sorry but I’d fire the editor of this film if it had been up to me. I know I’ve mentioned this, but the first 30 minutes or so are brutal. I would have loved to see those edited more.

The Brutalist: I’m pretty sure the editor lost his job here halfway through the film. For those of you that don’t know this film is 3 hours and 34 minutes long. What exactly did they edit out?

Conclave: Truthfully none of the five films here really stood out in terms of editing. I’ve said it before, but this is always such an interesting category to me because I don’t know anyone who can watch a film and determine which ones are best at editing. This isn’t true of any of the other awards. Conclave is nominated here simply because it’s views as one of the better films of the year. There’s never a film that shows up here and not elsewhere in the nominations.

Emilia Perez: Editing normally goes to the films the Academy enjoys overall. That’s certainly true here as Emilia Perez received 13 total nominations.

Wicked: Enjoyed the film. No idea on it’s editing. ☺

Biggest Snub: Um, no.

Actual Winner: Anora (2 Confidence)

My Winner: Conclave
Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus: Deserving nomination. No chance of pulling off the win. This category is loaded this year.

Better Man: I was really hoping this film would be nominated here. Very original film that certainly earned this nomination. Go check it out if you haven’t seen it. When you hear it’s a biopic about Robbie Williams you won’t understand this nomination at all. Until you watch it…

Dune: Part Two: Seems to the be runaway winner and that tells you just how amazing the effects are because this category is stacked. I feel like I say this year after year, but this is one category that gets so much better as time goes on.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: All of the recent films from this franchise have had amazing effects. All three of the Matt Reeves films received this same nomination. Yet all three came up short, just like Kingdom will.

Wicked: Perhaps not it’s best category, but still solid. Effects felt a bit like watching a Harry Potter film.

Biggest Snub: Super tough to call a snub here as all of these films knocked it out of the park. Probably Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.

Actual Winner: Dune: Part Two (18 Confidence)

My Winner: Better Man
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man: The makeup here is pretty incredible. Some of it did look a little bit hokey and unrealistic. However, this film is based on people who are deformed and shows many people with pretty severe deformities. Very odd film overall.

Emilia Perez: This nomination I’m on board with. While I don’t see it winning here, there was some work needed to transform the main character.

Nosferatu: Nosferatu was pretty creepy, but I did think his mustache was a bit odd. Overall, solid job though.

The Substance: As Demi Moore kept turning more and more into a creature the makeup and hairstyle had to step up their game. By the end of the film, it was nearly all makeup and very little Demi.
Wicked: It certainly seems like makeup and hairstyle are a big part of this film. All the interesting looks here, including making Cynthia Erivo green were spot on.

Biggest Snub: Dune: Part Two

Actual Winner: The Substance (16 Confidence)

My Winner: The Substance
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

Never Too Late- Elton John: Never Too Late: Not my favorite Elton John song. It was fine, just nothing special for me.

El Mal- Emilia Perez: Really enjoyed this song. This was definitely my favorite scene in the entire film. And Zoe Saldana nailed this song and dance.

Mi Camino- Emilia Perez: Selena can sing no doubt, but this wasn’t my favorite song.

Like a Bird- Sing Sing: I would say this was my second favorite of the nominees. Not entirely my type of music, but it’s a catchy song that I enjoyed.

The Journey- The Six Triple Eight: Normally I like slow songs with a lot of piano. This song was that but just came across as a bit boring.

Biggest Snub: Can’t think of any.

Actual Winner: El Mal – Emilia Perez (15 Confidence)

My Winner: El Mal – Emilia Perez

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

The Brutalist: Knocked this one out of the part. Really loved the score here and can’t say enough about it. Absolutely fantastic.

Conclave: Really loved this score. The strings were amazing and added to the tense nature of this film. Probably going to fall just a bit short.

Emilia Perez: The music was odd in this film. The musical numbers felt very much forced. The score itself didn’t seem to stand out. It was just an odd film overall.

Wicked: This is a bit of an odd selection to me. All the music that is remembered from this film includes singing. I can’t say the score, apart from those songs, was really something to remember.

The Wild Robot: Not the first thing I remembered about this film. I would say this is the weakest of this bunch.

Biggest Snub: Again, how did The Nickel Boys get snubbed here?

Actual Winner: The Brutalist (12 Confidence)

My Winner: The Brutalist

Best Animated Short Film

Beautiful Man: Great animation. A little bit of a bizarre story. Honestly not sure what to even make of this one. Perhaps I’m supposed to be inspired, but I think I missed the point.

In the Shadow of the Cypress: Didn’t really enjoy this one all that much. Slow story and just not a whole lot there.

Magic Candies: Fun animation that looked very real. Incredibly creative story about a boy who eats special candies, and they allow him to talk to all sorts of things around his house. Loved it! Just might be my favorite short that I’ve ever watched.

Wander to Wonder: What in the actual hell? This certainly wins the award for most original. I’ve never seen anything quite like this. You have to watch this. It’s a must, just so I’m not alone here. I don’t even know how to describe this.

Yuck!: Fun story about how little kids think its gross when adults kiss. Follows a little boy who wants to kiss a girl but is worried what his friends will think.

Biggest Snub: Didn’t see any of the others.

Actual Winner: Magic Candies (3 Confidence)

My Winner: Magic Candies
Best Live Action Short Film
A Lien: A short film about a man trying to become a US citizen. It’s a touching film about how tough life can be to become a citizen.

Anuja: Fun little story about a girl from India who is a bit of a math genius. Easy to watch even though the topic wasn’t an overly happy one.

I’m Not a Robot: Really loved this one. A film about a woman who struggles to answer the CAPTCHA on her computer and believe she may be a robot. Well worth the watch.

The Last Ranger: Tough story about how Rhinos are killed for their horns. Well told story based on the experiences of a Rhino that lost its horn and survived.

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent- Short, but powerful film about a train that’s stopped in Croatia. Supposedly this is a routine military check but feels like anything but. I enjoyed this.

Biggest Snub: None that I know of.

Actual Winner: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (1 Confidence)

My Winner: The Last Ranger

Best Documentary Short Subject

Death by Numbers: Not available anywhere. Smart.

I Am Ready, Warden: Tough take on the death penalty. Tells the story of a 19-year-old who brutally murders a man outside a convenience store. Follows both the murderer and the victim’s son. This film certainly gives you perspective from more than one angle when it comes to capital punishment.

Incident: Tough watch here. This film lays out the events of a police officer shooting a man. It showed footage from security cameras and from body cams to try and explain and understand what happened during this event. It was well put together, but I wasn’t crazy about the topic.

Instruments of a Beating Heart: Truthfully this was boring. Not sure what I’m missing here. It was about a school in Japan and a little girl gets a part in a musical performance. There just wasn’t much to it at all.

The Only Girl in the Orchestra: Interesting story about a woman who was the first female in the New York Orchestra. Told a lot of her backstory, which I enjoyed since her mother and father were famous actors. Her father was actually in the first film to win Best Picture.

Biggest Snub: None that I know of.

Actual Winner: I Am Ready, Warden (8 Confidence)

My Winner: I Am Ready, Warden

Best Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries: A bit of a tough watch about a young woman who was raped by a prominent Japanese politician. This film follows her story and uncovers how the Japanese legal system is not setup to take on sexual related crimes.

No Other Land: Not an easy film to watch. This film, along with most of these documentaries, makes you be very thankful for the lives we all have. A very timely film as it takes a look at Palestinians living in the West Bank.

Porcelain War: Another film that decided not to release. Real…Genius…

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat: This film focuses on civil rights and the struggles of Africa during the late 1950’s and early 1960’s. The film was very fragmented and honestly a bit hard to follow. Not my favorite.

Sugarcane: Another tough watch. This film focuses on Catholic schools in Canada that were doing horrible things to Native American children. Really horrific story, but a well-made documentary.

Biggest Snub(s): Didn’t see any others.

Actual Winner: No Other Land (7 Confidence)

My Winner: No Other Land

Best International Film of the Year

I’m Still Here: Absolutely fantastic film. I was sobbing. This is what a film should be like. Truly incredible. A true story about a family torn apart by the Brazilian Government/Army. This is a must watch film.

The Girl with the Needle: Holy cow. This was an incredible film. The acting is fantastic. Maybe the best I’ve seen from any film this year. But man was the subject manner tough. Loosely based on the true story of a woman from Denmark who was acting as an adoption agency but was actually just killing all the babies. Crazy story, but incredible film.

Emilia Perez: While this film could certainly win here since it was nominated for Best Picture, I surely hope that it doesn’t. For those of you who can’t tell, I didn’t really enjoy this film.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig: Really fascinating film about how poorly women are treated in Iran. Not an easy watch, but very well done. Terrifying to think this is actually very realistic.

Flow: Absolutely loved this film. It’s an amazing visual experience. It has no talking as it 100% focuses on animals, but that doesn’t stop it from creating characters and bringing out emotions. It’s a film for everyone and well worth watching.

Biggest Snub: Didn’t see any others, but man 4 of these 5 films are absolutely incredible.

Actual Winner: I’m Still Here (6 Confidence)

My Winner: I’m Still Here

Best Animated Feature Film

Flow: I doubt Flow is going to win as it’s going up against some heavy hitters. But I enjoyed the heck out of it. It’s an incredibly easy watch and the visuals are the best of all the animated films.

Inside Out 2: Enjoyable film that picked up where the first one left off. There’s really nothing bad about this film and pretty much everyone seems to like it, but it’s probably not going to win here.

Memoir of a Snail: Not at all what I expected when I read the title. Very much not a film for kids, which is odd for animated films. While the story was sad, it was a great watch. Animation was dark and dingy, very much reflecting the feel of the film and its characters.

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl: Wallace & Gromit are back, and they are nominated again. This film is short, fun, exciting, funny and most of all VERY entertaining. The only film of all nominated films to have a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes (as of writing).

The Wild Robot: Wow is this film good. And again, this category is absolutely LOADED. Do yourself a favor and go watch The Wild Robot. It’s an amazing adventure that has a very inspirational meaning behind it all.

Biggest Snub: Perhaps it’s not a snub, but Disney has to be a bit perturbed that Moana 2 didn’t make the cut.

Actual Winner: The Wild Robot (13 Confidence)

My Winner: Tough one here for me. The Wild Robot

Best Achievement in Production Design

The Brutalist: Fantastic set designs and great feel to the film. This film is about an architect, so the production design really meant something here.

Conclave: To be honest I’m not sure here as I’ve never been to the Vatican. I suspect they did a great job replicating it. One issue I have is that there didn’t have to be a whole lot of creativity here.

Dune: Part Two: Such a great job here, just like the Part One. I love all the creative ideas for all the different buildings and environments. The production design is a big part of this film, and it knocked it out of the park.

Nosferatu: This is a film all about trying to give you a creepy feeling. They did a great job here, especially while in Nosferatu’s castle. The entire feel of the city was one that you didn’t want any part of.

Wicked: There was a real Harry Potter vibe to this film. The school, classrooms, dorms all felt like you were being transported back to Hogwarts. Assuming this film was going for a bit of a Harry Potter vibe, then it nailed it!

Biggest Snub: Civil War

Actual Winner: Wicked (17 Confidence)

My Winner: Dune: Part Two

Best Achievement in Directing

Sean Baker- Anora: I still don’t get it. The story and idea of the film I liked. I just didn’t understand the execution of it. While I understood the need for a bit of a backstory at the beginning, they certainly didn’t need all they showed.

Brady Corbet: The Brutalist: Truthfully, I’m floored by Brady’s ability to pull off a film like this at the age of 36. Absolutely incredible performance. This film is not for everyone, but it’s a great film in the way it’s made. And a lot of that credit goes to Brady.

James Mangold: A Complete Unknown: Mangold is no stranger to musical biopics. He directed Walk The Line many years ago, a film about Johnny Cash. He’s been associated with many big-time films like Walk the Line, Logan and Ford vs. Ferrari. Could this be his year for a breakthrough? Probably not.

Jacques Audiard- Emilia Perez: I just don’t get it. And I’m not alone. This film has, by far, the lowest score on IMDB. Truly not sure what the critics see in this one.

Coralie Fargeat- The Substance: Very fascinating film. This was very original, and I can always appreciate that. This is the first big film for Coralie, and she knocked it out of the park. I suspect we’ll see more of her in the future.

Biggest Snub: Dune: Part Two

Actual Winner: Sean Baker (9 Confidence)

My Winner: Brady Corbet

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo- Wicked: She’s GREEN! Not only was she green, but she was great. Her emotions were all over the place in this film and she did a good job showing off them all. In addition to the fact that she had some tough singing to do. It’s probably Demi’s award to lose, but you never know.

Karla Sofia Gascon- Emilia Perez: Sorry but no. Have I mentioned that I’m confused about the love for this film by the Academy? And I’m not just saying this because the topic is a little odd. The audiences hated this film, and the critics think less of it than just about any other film nominated in any category. This film shouldn’t win anything.

Mikey Madison- Anora: Maybe if this was the Best Porn Actress she’d win. All kidding aside the beginning of the film is brutal. Take that out and maybe I can buy Madison being nominated. But that part of the film will always be there and that’s enough for me to say no thanks to her nomination.

Demi Moore- The Substance: While Demi was great in this film, I’m not 100% sold on this performance. This didn’t feel like a performance that is Best Actress worthy. In fact, it felt awfully similar to a lot of horror/suspense type of films to me.

Fernanda Torres- I’m Still Here: I’m sad to say that Torres doesn’t have much of a shot here, which is an absolute shame. She was fantastic. I have a very hard time understanding how she wasn’t even nominated for a BAFTA or a SAG. I simply don’t understand what they were watching.

Biggest Snub: Nicole Kidman from Babygirl.

Actual Winner: Demi Moore (10 Confidence)

My Winner: Fernanda Torres

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody- The Brutalist: Brody waited a long time to get nominated again after he won this award in 2003 for The Pianist. He appears to be on track for a 2nd win. Brody knocks this role out of the park as he delivers another remarkable performance. There’s just something about him playing a Jewish character from the World War 2 era.

Timothee Chalamet- A Complete Unknown: It seems to be a race between Chalamet and Brody. They both have a pretty storied history at the Oscars. Chalamet first got nominated when he was only 23 for his role in Call Me by Your Name. He’s going to be a force for many, many years to come.
Colman Domingo- Sing Sing: Let’s take a minute to appreciate Colman. There aren’t many actors nominated for Actor in a Leading Role in back-to-back years. Colman accomplished that here after being nominated last year for Rustin. Early in his career he was more known for playing side roles, but that seems to have changed later in his career.

Ralph Fiennes- Conclave: Sorry Ralph if you can’t win for Schindler’s List, then you certainly can’t win for Conclave. He was “fine” here. See what I did there?

Sebastian Stan- The Apprentice: Great job by Stan. Regardless of what you feel about this film or about Donald Trump, Stan did a great job with his mannerisms and the way he talked. Don’t think he’s going to win, but nice performance.

Biggest Snub: Daniel Craig from Queer.

Actual Winner: Adrien Brody (4 Confidence)

My Winner: Adrien Brody

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys
The Substance
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Wicked

Biggest Snub: No doubt it’s September 5. No reason for it not to be here. I honestly might have picked it to win Best Picture and it didn’t even make the final 10. I was pretty disappointed overall with the 10 nominations.

For each nomination I’m going to list why it should win, why it shouldn’t win, why it could win and why it won’t win.

Anora

I have to admit that it pains me quite a bit that Anora appears to the be favorite for this award. The first 30 minutes or so are brutal. It’s essentially a porno. I just don’t see how this adds anything to the story. I understand developing this and showing some, but it was downright insane.

Why it SHOULD win- Personally I don’t think it should. Critics do like it and, somehow, most of the audience does as well. After the first chunk of the film, it is a good story and has a lot of drama and even some comedy.

Why it SHOULD NOT- The first 30 minutes should make it ineligible. I’m shocked this film wasn’t NC-17. It’s certainly not a film that a lot of people want to see.

Why it COULD win- It won the Producer’s Guild Award, which is typically a VERY good sign. It was in the top two even before that win.

Why it WON’T win- It didn’t win at the BAFTAs or at the SGAs. Will that curse it at the Oscars?

Odds of winning Best Picture: 10:1

The Brutalist

This film isn’t for everyone. It’s long and it’s not an entirely riveting topic. But everything about this film is very well done.

Why it SHOULD win- It’s the most well put together film of all 10 nominees. There isn’t anything it didn’t do well. And it did several things exceptionally well. Critics love this film and audiences enjoyed it as well.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- Is it too long? This is definitely not a mainstream film and a lot of people didn’t see it.

Why it COULD win- It has a shot to win several big awards including Best Actor and Best Director. It has all the required nominations.

Why it WON’T win- It’s been under performing since the Golden Globes. No PGA and no BAFTA usually means no Best Picture.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 30:1

A Complete Unknown
While this is a fun film and Timothee Chalamet is fantastic, this film doesn’t quite scream Best Picture. That could be due to the fact that there have been quite a few musical biopics over the years.

Why it SHOULD win- The music is obviously great. The acting is great. It’s certainly more mainstream that most of the other nominees.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- Not quite enough. It’s liked, but generally not loved by most. It probably won’t win any awards this year.

Why it COULD win- Can Chalamet’s star power get it across the line? Probably not. It does have a lot of the right nominations though.

Why it WON’T win- It hasn’t won anywhere else. While the nominations are there, the awards probably won’t be.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 50:1

Conclave

I am still a bit up in the air about this film. I didn’t hate the idea of the film. But I will admit, some parts were hard for me to watch as a Catholic. The acting and suspense are great though.

Why it SHOULD win- Great acting, led by Ralph Fiennes. It’s a film that is relatively easy to watch.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- It’s not quite powerful enough. Has a lot of pieces, but not big enough as a whole.

Why it COULD win- A nomination in Best Actor. A film that nearly no one hates. It won the BAFTA Best Picture and also won for Ensemble Cast at the SGA.

Why it WON’T win- Not enough nominations. Generally not a film that anyone has loved.
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Odds of winning Best Picture: 20:1

Dune: Part Two

Great film that the audience absolutely loves. I personally didn’t love it quite as much as others, but the visuals and creativity are out of this world. Literally. ☺

Why it SHOULD win- It’s probably the most popular of the nominees as it has the second highest IMDB score and the second highest money made at the box office.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- The first one didn’t. Came out way before others and has lost all momentum.

Why it COULD win- It’s a film that made a boatload of money and was deemed to be one of the greatest science fiction films of all time.

Why it WON’T win- It hasn’t won anything at any other award shows. It has no shot here.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 70:1

Emilia Perez

One of the worst nominations I can ever remember. This film has a 17% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. How this film received the most nominations scares me for the future of The Oscars.

Why it SHOULD win- I can’t even justify making something up as to why this film should win. If it does, I’m done with the Oscars.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- The audiences HATE this film. There is one stat that should tell you why it should not win. The 9 other Best Picture nominees all have an audience score of 75%-99% on Rotten Tomatoes. Emilia Perez has a 17%! Oh and it’s also the lowest critics score.

Why it COULD win- This film received a lot of nominations and love and then the bottom fell out. The only reason you could try and convince anyone it could win is because it received the most nominations.

Why it WON’T win- Horrible audience scores. Tons of controversy behind the film now. This film has no shot.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 90:1

I’m Still Here

This film absolutely blew me away. It was an emotional rollercoaster that had me in tears. This film follows a true story about a family torn apart by the Brazilian Government/Army. The acting was phenomenal and this film should be getting more buzz.

Why it SHOULD win- This film is, by far, the highest rated film by fans and critics alike. It’s a film that everyone loves. And it’s amazing.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- There really isn’t a reason it should not win.

Why it COULD win- It would have to be an all-time upset for this film to win. It has won a solid amount for best international or foreign film. But it hasn’t taken any big awards at any show.

Why it WON’T win- It has no nominations for directing, writing or editing. That’s a kiss of death.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 60:1

Nickel Boys

Not an easy subject at all, but a film that is carried by its uniqueness and its acting.

Why it SHOULD win- Great acting and incredibly unique way of filming. This film grabs you and holds on throughout. While it’s not an easy watch, you want to know how the story ends.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- No star power, not enough there. Best Picture films generally create more buzz and there has been almost no buzz behind this film at all.

Why it COULD win- Of all the films nominated, this one has no chance. The least number of nominations for any Best Picture contender.

Why it WON’T win- No other big nominations outside of writing. Best Picture winners don’t generally receive only two total nominations.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 100:1

The Substance

While this is an original film that deserves some credit, it felt way too horror for me to take it seriously at the Oscars.

Why it SHOULD win- It’s very original, I’ll give it that. There just is not nearly enough of anything else.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- It’s too far out there. Not the best scores by audiences or critics.

Why it COULD win- Demi Moore is getting a lot of love and it’s certainly something different than your typical Oscar film.

Why it WON’T win- It doesn’t have enough behind it. Not as many nominations as other nominees and very little love at other award shows.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 40:1

Wicked

Definitely the most entertaining of the 10 nominees. This is simply a fun, family film.

Why it SHOULD win- It’s the most mainstream of all the 10 nominees. It made the most money as well. It’s a fun, thrilling ride that nearly everyone enjoyed.

Why it SHOULD NOT win- It’s missing the great acting that often follows a Best Picture winner. These performances are fine, but they aren’t career altering.

Why it COULD win- Frankly it can’t. It received a lot of nominations, but will be lucky to walk away with more than 2 victories.

Why it WON’T win- It hasn’t won anywhere yet. It’s not a film that’s getting any buzz for actually winning this award.

Odds of winning Best Picture: 80:1

Best Picture Prediction

Actual Winner: Anora (5 Confidence)

My Winner: I’m Still Here