Our Oscar Choices!!
• Welcome to the Oscars!
• This article written by one of our staff writers Josh Pankow will take you through every major award handed out. For each award there will be a confidence level. It ranges from 23 to 1 with 23 being the most confident pick and 1 being the least confident pick.
• It will also show you who we think is going to win in addition to who we would want to win. Enjoy!
Films That Just Missed, But You Shouldn’t Miss Them
• John Wick Chapter 4- Wick does it again with an incredible thrill ride. Perhaps some are tiring of the Wick franchise, but these films continue to be watched by many and loved by nearly all.
• Air- I was really sad to see no nominations for Air. This film follows the storyline of Michael Jordan being recruited by Nike. I can’t help but think it simply released too early.
• Blackberry- A fun biopic about the invention of the Blackberry phone. Was entertaining throughout the entire film. And while it wasn’t always completely accurate, it still gave some interesting details about the story.
• The Killer- The latest release from David Fincher, The Killer is a film that many missed. While it’s not quite on par with some of Fincher’s other work (Fight Club, Gone Girl, Seven), it’s still a well-done film.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
• Sterling K. Brown- American Fiction: Interesting role for Brown. The film wasn’t my favorite, but Brown played his part well. This category is very one sided though and it would take a miracle for Brown, or anyone else, to beat Downey Jr.
• Robert De Niro- Killers of the Flower Moon: While I wouldn’t call this one of De Niro’s finest pieces of work, it wasn’t a bad performance. This nomination felt a bit like star power as much as anything though. De Niro is not winning here and doesn’t deserve to.
• Robert Downey Jr.- Oppenheimer: While Ironman might be dead, Robert Downey Jr. most certainly is not. This was a career altering performance. Such a fantastic character and played so very well by Downey Jr. It will be an absolute crying shame if he doesn’t win this one.
• Ryan Gosling- Barbie: There has been quite an uproar of people complaining that Gosling received a nomination while Margot Robbie did not. Barbie was a bit of a tough film for me, but I did enjoy Gosling’s character quite a bit.
• Mark Ruffalo- Poor Things: I was a tad shocked to see Ruffalo and not Dafoe on this list. It’s always a bit of a challenge to see a film received two nominations in the same category. I felt Dafoe was better than Ruffalo, but clearly the Academy felt otherwise.
• Biggest Snub- Willem Dafoe- Poor Things. Dafoe has won before and certainly deserved a nomination here.
• Actual Winner: Robert Downey Jr. (23 Confidence)
• My Winner: Robert Downey Jr.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
• Emily Blunt- Oppenheimer: I’m clearly already favoring my favorite film of the year, but Blunt was spectacular in this film. She had to play a character who seemed a bit reserved and in the background at times and then BAM in your face at others. The scene in the interrogation room was one for the ages.
• Danielle Brooks- The Color Purple: I must say that I enjoyed this film a good bit more than I thought I would. Such a tough call for me here. While I certainly enjoyed Brooks, I thought Taraji P. Henson was epic. Would have loved to see them both here, but truly can’t complain about Brooks’ nomination.
• American Ferrera- Barbie: You could have won a whole lot of money if you had bet than Ferrera would receive a nomination, but Robbie would not. Can’t say I saw this one coming and can’t say I understand this one. No chance Ferrera was better than Henson.
• Jodie Foster- Nyad: Foster is no stranger to the Oscars, although it’s been quite some time since she’s won. She’s not going to win this year, but it was a well-deserved nomination.
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph- The Holdovers: And we have ourselves a winner. This film is amazing and so was Randolph. Do yourself a favor and go watch this one. Randolph adds just enough to keep this story from becoming too depressing and makes it feel very real.
• Biggest Snub- Taraji P. Henson- The Color Purple
• Actual Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (21 Confidence)
• My Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Best Original Screenplay
• Anatomy of a Fall: Such a fascinating story here. And I personally love the open-ended ending to keep us all guessing a bit. The dialogue mixing between English, French and German added even more to the story. I had no idea what to expect of this film and I was not disappointed at all.
• The Holdovers: Films like this are such a rare breed. This film did an amazing job of taking a story that felt incredibly real and had very real dialogue and then blending it with enough entertainment and comedy to make it one hell of a film. It had the feel of a film like Good Will Hunting, which won the Oscar for Screenplay many years ago.
• Maestro: Nothing to see here. Film is just fine, but original is a stretch. I have always, and will always, have a very difficult time accepting films based on true stories as very original. It’s either true or original. It can’t be both.
• May December: Can’t say this was one of my favorites. The acting was very good from Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman. It just wasn’t an overly interesting movie.
• Past Lives: The story is very interesting. It follows two young Korean children over the span of 24 years. The film feels very original as it’s unlike anything I’ve seen before. The character development is fantastic as you become very emotionally involved.
• Biggest Snub- The Iron Claw. While it may not be original, many people loved this film.
• Actual Winner: Anatomy of a Fall (11 Confidence)
• My Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay
• American Fiction: I bounced around a lot during this film. Some of this film felt very real and authentic. Other parts felt completely far-fetched and outlandish. I got the feeling it was made to make you feel that way and, therefore, did a great job.
• Barbie: How is this adapted when it is not based on anything more than a concept and yet Maestro is original? Anyway, I did find there to be some interesting concepts here, but the overall idea didn’t really do it for me.
• Oppenheimer: The back and forth between color and black & white. The amazing dialogue between Einstein and Oppenheimer. The great back and forth of the hearings. All of these elements made this film great.
• Poor Things: This film certainly is something. It’s a bit of an odd mix of a Frankenstein story, a woman finding herself in the world and a porno. Makes perfect sense right? I didn’t think so either.
• The Zone of Interest: Talk about a fascinating story. This is not an easy film to watch, but it’s a film that everyone should see. The film showed how the Nazis completely de-humanized the Jews and it was just part of their life to rid the world of them.
• Biggest Snub- Killers of the Flower Moon
• Actual Winner: American Fiction (7 Confidence)
• My Winner: Oppenheimer
Best Achievement in Cinematography
• El Conde: Very well shot. No doubt about that. It was a bit of an odd film though. It’s a black and white film about a vampire who is 250 years old and has become a leader in Chile. While it was violent and a bit strange, it was really worth watching.
• Killers of the Flower Moon: There are clearly some very memorable scenes here. And Rodrigo Prieto should be given a lot of credit because he had to film for 3 years to make enough scenes for Scorsese. I kid I kid. I did love some of the oil scenes.
• Maestro: Really enjoyed the feel of this film. Like Oppenheimer, this film jumped back and forth between color and black & white. Matthew Libatique has been nominated three times now and it’s clear he knows what he is doing.
• Oppenheimer: Hoyte Van Hoytema has smartly connected his career to Christopher Nolan. This is his second nomination after his amazing job on Dunkirk. This sure feels like the winner here. Really well-done job by Van Hoytema.
• Poor Things: There are two things that you can count on from a Yorgos Lanthimos film. Number one is that it’s probably going to be a bit strange. Number two is that, thanks to Robbie Ryan, it’s going to look amazing. The angles and movements are a thing of beauty.
• Biggest Snub- Not earth shattering, but a bit surprising not to see The Zone of Interest here.
• Actual Winner: Oppenheimer (18 Confidence)
• My Winner: Oppenheimer
Best Achievement in Costume Design
• Barbie: Loved all the outfits that Barbie was going through. To me, this added to the film more than nearly any other film from this year. While some of these others were great, they also had to be a lot more structured and weren’t nearly as big of a part of the overall films.
• Killers of the Flower Moon: Mixing clothing from the 1920s with that of the Native Americans was no small task. This was pulled off very well and everything felt very authentic.
• Napoleon: If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times, period pieces are nearly always a lock to receive a nomination here. I did enjoy all the military uniforms.
• Oppenheimer: It’s no secret that I love Oppenheimer. But Costume Design wasn’t what stood out to me. This felt like a lot of suits. Would anyone have really noticed if the suits were from the 1970s instead of the 1940s? Not sure I would have.
• Poor Things: The most important thing for the costume designer in Poor Things was to make sure the clothing was easy to take off. All kidding aside, Emma Stone had some pretty wild outfits here.
• Biggest Snub:
• Actual Winner: Barbie (4 Confidence)
• My Winner: Barbie
Best Achievement in Sound
• The Creator: An interesting look at the potential future of AI. Lots of fascinating sounds from the robots, weapons and vehicles. This is an underrated science fiction film that I’m glad received a couple of nominations.
• Maestro: The top musical films always get a nomination in sound. Maestro is the example this year. There was a ton of music mixed into this film, which is not a surprise considering the topic of the film.
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: This is a film that truly needs to be seen on the largest screen possible. It is an incredible thrill ride of an action movie. Technically this film is very strong, and it received very positive reviews from both audiences and critics alike.
• Oppenheimer: This is going to be quite the statement, but there aren’t many better films with sound in the history of cinema. If you watched this film on an iPad or a small screen, then shame on you. With all due respect to the four other films here, if Oppenheimer doesn’t win for Sound, then I’m out!
• The Zone of Interest: Really great job here. The background sounds were some of the best I’ve ever heard. Many film the background noise isn’t all that important. Maybe it’s a birds or traffic or people talking, but it’s generally not the focal point. However, in this film the background sounds were the story. Fascinating.
• Biggest Snub: Ferrari. Films about car racing often see a nomination here.
• Actual Winner: Oppenheimer (14 Confidence)
• My Winner: Oppenheimer
Best Achievement in Film Editing
• Anatomy of a Fall: Well-done here as the audience is often thrown back and forth between scenes. This film didn’t feel choppy at all, and it certainly could have ended up that way.
• The Holdovers: Editing is often reserved for the films that the Academy deems as the best films. And certainly, that fits here. However, it didn’t come across as a film that had amazing editing.
• Killers of the Flower Moon: The editor needed to be fired. I actually think they might have fired the editor and forgot to make any edits. I envision this editor sitting through the scenes like the editor of a fishing show. Only this is a fishing show that has to run for 3 and a half hours and only shows 3 fish getting caught.
• Oppenheimer: Another long film, but this film didn’t feel nearly as long as Killers of the Flower Moon did. The cutting back and forth between the black & white and the color scenes was magnificent. I would be quite surprised if Oppenheimer isn’t the winner here.
• Poor Things: This is another example of the Academy’s top film choices all receiving editing nominations.
• Biggest Snub: None
• Actual Winner: Oppenheimer (17 Confidence)
• My Winner: Oppenheimer
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
• The Creator: Perhaps the most amazing visual effects were the robot’s heads that looked hollow through the ears. Job well done here, and I was glad to see a nomination. It’s well earned.
• Godzilla Minus One: Sadly, this film wasn’t eligible for Best International film after Japan didn’t enter it for that category. If you haven’t seen this film, do yourself a favor and go watch it. Even if you aren’t into Godzilla movies, you’ll still enjoy this.
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: Sadly, this is most likely the last Guardians movie. My favorite of all the Marvel franchises, I’ll miss this one big time. But at least it went out with a bang and not a whimper.
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: I’m glad this film didn’t get a bunch of nominations because it’s way too long of a name to keep having to type. All kidding aside this film had a difficult job as it had to try and make everything look very real. This is easier when you are working with stories that are fake as the audience can be tricked more easily. Not the case with MI.
• Napoleon: A bit of a stunner here. This film didn’t attract much attention at all, and I was surprised to see it receive a nomination.
• Biggest Snub: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
• Actual Winner: The Creator (5 Confidence)
• My Winner: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
- Golda: Fantastic film that is gut wrenching and nerve wracking to watch. The makeup here is off
the charts. Helen Mirren is not recognizable. Absolutely incredible work. - Maestro: Take a look at the way Bradley Cooper looked for this film and it will be obvious right
away why this film received this nomination. He’s hardly recognizable. - Oppenheimer: Of all the things I loved about Oppenheimer, I can’t say Makeup and Hairstyling
was it. I’m sure more went into this than maybe I realize. However, this certainly isn’t the aspect
that will be remembered. - Poor Things: Willem Dafoe looked amazing with all his scars. And Emma Stone was perfectly done
as well. Fantastic job. - Society of the Snow: I would not have thought about this film being nominated here. However,
after seeing it you realize how much work must have gone into making the actors and actresses
look sick, sunburnt, injured, etc. - Biggest Snub: Killers of the Flower Moon.
- Actual Winner: Poor Things (3 Confidence)
- My Winner: Society of the Snow
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
• The Fire Inside- Flamin’ Hot: While I didn’t hate this song, I can’t say I loved it either. It was nothing super original or special to me.
• I’m Just Ken- Barbie: Funny song, but not on par with What Was I Made For? I love that Ryan Gosling can sing, but this song didn’t really do it for me.
• It Never Went Away- American Symphony: Great music in this one. Wasn’t crazy about the lyrics. Just seemed a bit dull.
• Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)- Killers of the Flower Moon: Certainly, an interesting song. I wouldn’t say it’s a song anyone is going to rock out to, but it’s fantastic music to have on as you’re working.
• What Was I Made For?- Barbie: I’m a bit obsessed with this song. Billie Eilish songs always seem to be a bit depressing, and this song is certainly that. But I love it.
• Biggest Snub: Keep it Movin’- The Color Purple. Wow, not a single song nominated from The Color Purple.
• Actual Winner: What Was I Made For? (15 Confidence)
• My Winner: What Was I Made For?
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
• American Fiction: The score wasn’t something that played all that big of a role here. The Zone of Interest should have gotten this spot instead.
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: While some may forget the score a bit from this film, it’s hard to ignore the wonderful John Williams. Clearly, he needed another nomination. I don’t think he’s going to win this one though.
• Killers of the Flower Moon: I’ll say one thing for sure. There was a whole lot of dead time that needed to be filled with music. All kidding aside, the score wasn’t something that really stood out.
• Oppenheimer: It will be quite a shock if this isn’t another award on the evening for Oppenheimer. The score plays a huge part of this film and really adds to it’s feel throughout.
• Poor Things: Like the film, the score was a bit interesting. Nothing in this film feels normal, but this nomination is well deserved.
• Biggest Snub: The Zone of Interest.
• Actual Winner: Oppenheimer (16 Confidence)
• My Winner: Oppenheimer
Best Animated Short Film
• Letter To A Pig: Unique animation that combined some real filming with animation. About a Jewish Holocaust survivor who had pigs that helped him hide. And he’s telling his story to a class of children.
• Ninety-Five Senses: Cool story about a 90-year-old man who has spent his life in jail after killing some people that he didn’t mean to. It goes through what life might have been like if not for his mistake. And it focuses on the five senses that we all have.
• Our Uniform: Very short. About a girl in Iran and the school uniform they have to wear. It has kind of an odd feel to it as it made a statement at the beginning that it was not trying to make a message, but then seemed to make a message. Not a whole lot there, but it wasn’t bad.
• Pachyderme: Honestly not a ton here either. About a girl who goes to visit her grandparents and then her grandfather dies. It’s a bit touching, but it wasn’t full of energy.
• War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko: Loved this one. It was about two men playing chess from across a battlefield by sending their moves to each other via carrier pigeon. They end up meeting each other on the battlefield and realize they can’t kill each other. Great animation as well.
• Biggest Snub: Didn’t see any of the others.
• Actual Winner: Letter to a Pig (1 Confidence)
• My Winner: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko.
Best Live Action Short Film
• The After: They sure don’t make these easy to watch. Incredibly hard to watch film about a man whose wife and child are killed in front of him. This film focuses on how the man tries to cope with his life. Great acting by David Oyelowo. Heart breaking film, but wonderfully done.
• Invincible: Tough film about a young man who is struggling in life and decides to take his life. It’s based on a true story that really makes you think about life.
• Knight of Fortune: Absolutely loved this one. About a man who goes to the morgue to see his wife who has passed away. He meets a new friend, who he is unsure of at first. This friend ends up helping him deal with his loss. Great little film.
• Red, White and Blue: Very difficult film to watch about a very young girl who is raped and becomes pregnant. Her family is very poor and struggling to get through life and all that it throws at them. Incredibly tough subject manner, but well put together film.
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Wes Anderson knocks this one out of the part. Considering many of the Live Action Shorts aren’t always easy to watch, this one was super easy. Do yourself a favor and watch this one.
• Biggest Snub: None that I know of.
• Actual Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (13 Confidence)
• My Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Documentary Short Subject
• The ABCs of Book Banning: I must admit that I struggled a bit with this one. There is no doubt that freedom of speech should be left alone. However, I do think that some of these books may not be suitable for all ages. This is no different than some movies shouldn’t be seen by young people. Doesn’t mean these books or films shouldn’t be made, but there are some that aren’t made for all audiences.
• The Barber of Little Rock: A look at a man who is trying to help out his community by teaching them about their businesses and their money. He also offers out possible loans through companies to try and help those that might not be getting help elsewhere because of their race.
• Island In Between: A little film about an Island called Kinmen that is only a few miles away from China but is actually part of Taiwan. Focuses on the politics between China, Taiwan and the U.S. Well worth a quick watch.
• The Last Repair Shop: Absolutely fantastic little film about a group of four people who fix instruments for children. What makes this film amazing is the stories behind each of these four people. You won’t find much better short documentaries out there.
• Nai Nai & Wai Po: Another fantastic film here. This is the story of two elderly Asian women. They decide to choose joy instead of sadness and make this a motto for their everyday lives. Whether it’s doing their morning stretches, cleaning the house or dancing, everything they do is with an infectious smile.
• Biggest Snub: None that I know of.
• Actual Winner: The Last Repair Shop (2 Confidence)
• My Winner: The Last Repair Shop
Best Documentary Feature
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President: Well done film about a pop star who decides he’s going to try and run for president. This film focuses on how corrupt Uganda is and how hard it truly is to change the world sometimes. Great music, great film.
• The Eternal Memory: This one felt a bit off to me. It’s a sad story following a man who has Alzheimer’s. However, it didn’t do a great job relaying information. There wasn’t much here about how to possibly help. While it was a terrifying look at this disease, I felt like there could have been more done to tell the story.
• Four Daughters: Hard look at the impact that the radical Islamic state had on one family from Tunisia. The two oldest daughters are taken away from the family and become part of the radical Islamic state. Great film about the dangers of what is going on out there.
• To Kill A Tiger: Didn’t see.
• 20 Days In Mariupol: Probably the toughest film I’ve ever watched. This is one of, if not the, most important films of the year. This film focuses on the beginning of the Russia/Ukrainian war. It’s absolutely heart breaking as you see many people, including children, die. This is real life going down and damn it’s tough. If the Oscars don’t recognize this film, it will be an absolute shame. And that’s no offense to the other nominees, but man.
• Biggest Snub(s): American Symphony. This one won the PGA so it’s pretty shocking to not even see it nominated at the Oscars.
• Actual Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol (10 Confidence)
• My Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Best International Film of the Year
• Io Capitano: Didn’t watch.
• Perfect Days: I have to admit this film isn’t for everyone. It’s fairly slow and certainly not full of action. But its simplicity is beautiful. The story follows a man who cleans public toilets throughout Japan. This man is able to find happiness and beauty in the smallest things in his life. It’s refreshing to see films like this that are just about life and how wonderful even the smallest things can be.
• Society of the Snow: This film tells the same story that a film called Alive from about 30 years ago. This is the incredible story about a Uruguayan Rugby team that crash lands in the Andes mountains. This version felt a tad more authentic than the original.
• The Teacher’s Lounge: A very powerful film about the struggles a German teacher is facing. The acting is amazing, including all the kids. The ending is fascinating, but I won’t ruin it for you. It’s worth a watch and isn’t long at all.
• The Zone of Interest: Not surprising to see this nomination at all. The Zone of Interest received several other nominations, including Best Picture. We’ve seen this quite a few times over the last couple of years. That has typically been a very good sign, and that doesn’t look to change this year. This is a film everyone should watch, if for nothing else but to be reminded of what happened.
• Biggest Snub: Gozilla: Minus One, but it’s not really a snub since it couldn’t be nominated since Perfect Days was the selection Japan chose to submit. Honestly this is just a rule that needs to change as it should simply be the best 5 films regardless of region.
• Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest (20 Confidence)
• My Winner: Man, this is the toughest call for me. I loved Perfect Days, but The Zone of Interest is so very important for people to see. By the smallest margin I chose The Zone of Interest.
Best Animated Feature Film
• The Boy and the Heron: Didn’t see.
• Elemental: Eh, not my favorite Pixar film. It had some moments, but just wasn’t for me overall. I can’t see this becoming a Disney classic anytime soon.
• Nimona: Enjoyed the animation as it was a little different since it felt a bit more like a graphic novel. The story is funny and uplifting while also being a bit more intense than a typical animated film. Loved Riz Ahmed in this.
• Robot Dreams: Didn’t see.
• Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse: Following up on the very successful Into the Spider-Verse, this film picked right up where the first left off. Love the music and love the film overall. My only complaint was that it ended very abruptly and now I have to wait for the next one. It’s probably going to be worth the wait though.
• Biggest Snub: Hard to say since I didn’t see two of these, but I think they got it right.
• Actual Winner: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse (9 Confidence)
• My Winner: Of the 3 I saw I would pick Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse. I sure wish the others had been available earlier.
Best Achievement in Production Design
- Barbie: Loved the designs here. Everything really did feel like a playset or a dollhouse. And the
scenes that weren’t in Barbieland had a much different feel. - Killers of the Flower Moon: There simply wasn’t enough here to make me get too excited about
this nomination. - Napoleon: A really underrated part of this film. While Napoleon might not have been everyone’s
favorite film, the production design was spot on. The lavish indoor scenes to the grizzly battle
scenes were very well done. - Oppenheimer: While this is one award that Oppenheimer might not win, I certainly appreciate it.
From the Senate hearing to the interrogation to the small town created, the sets had a very
natural feel to them. And above all else, they certainly played a part in the story. - Poor Things: Some absolutely wild scenery. There was more freedom given in a film like this and
that made for some really elaborate sets that are very memorable. - Biggest Snub: Asteroid City.
- Actual Winner: Barbie (6 Confidence)
- My Winner: Barbie
Best Achievement in Directing
• Justine Triet- Anatomy of a Fall: Fantastic job here and her first nomination. Fortunately, she’s young and there is plenty of time for her as she’s going up against some of the big dogs in the industry this time around.
• Martin Scorsese- Killers of the Flower Moon: You may have heard of this guy. I’m going to tell you something crazy. Scorsese has only won 1 Best Directing Oscar to date. That’s a shame. Sadly, his total isn’t going up this year. Sorry Marty.
• Christopher Nolan- Oppenheimer: This appears to finally be his year. Somehow this is only Nolan’s second Directing nomination. I’m not sure how that is even possible. Either way, he should finally win an Oscar on a night that has the chance to be a banner evening for his film. He won the DGA (Director’s Guild) and the BAFTA.
• Yorgos Lanthimos- Poor Things: Lanthimos may not be for everyone. But I’ll give him credit for being someone who has his own style and sticks to it. It’s quite a unique style and I can certainly appreciate that.
• Jonathan Glazer- The Zone of Interest: This film is quite an achievement no doubt. There is so much to take away from this film. Glazer is mostly known for doing music videos, so this is quite an accomplishment for him.
• Biggest Snub: Holy Alexander Payne from The Holdovers. Really shocked to not see his name here. That’s not a knock on any of the nominees, but this was shocking.
• Actual Winner: Christopher Nolan (22 Confidence)
• My Winner: Christopher Nolan
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
- Annette Bening- Nyad: Not a film that many even know about. The film is solid. It’s not a must see, but the performances by
Bening and Foster are solid and it’s certainly a feel-good film. - Lily Gladstone- Killers of the Flower Moon: Lily won the Golden Globe and appears to be in a two-horse race with Emma Stone.
Stone certainly has the star power, but Lily was a bright spot in Killers. Gladstone also won the SAG, so she seems to be the favorite
going into the Oscars. - Sandra Huller- Anatomy of a Fall: Huller was absolutely fantastic here. She actually stars in The Zone of Interest as well. This was
such a fantastic performance. Sadly, I don’t think he has much chance, but what a year with these two performances. - Carey Mulligan- Maestro: Another absolutely awesome performance. Mulligan has won this award, but it would be a pretty big
upset to see her win it this year. Don’t let that change your opinion about her role here. This was an incredibly strong year in this
category. I would not be surprised at all to see Mulligan end up with a bundle of nominations throughout her career. - Emma Stone- Poor Things: Can Stone take home her second Oscar? If she does, you talk about winning for two TOTALLY different
roles. Her first win was for La La Land. This film might send you to La La Land, but her character could not be more different. - Biggest Snub: Probably the biggest stub of the year was not seeing Margot Robbie here. This sure feels like an example of the
Oscar balloting working against her. - Actual Winner: Lily Gladstone (8 Confidence)
- My Winner: Carey Mulligan
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
• Bradley Cooper- Maestro: Cooper keeps finding himself here and he keeps walking home empty handed. This year will be no different. He’s not beating Giamatti and Murphy. Sorry Rocket. J
• Colman Domingo- Rustin: Honestly had no idea who Rustin was before this film. I realized he was a very important character in history. The film was worth a watch for sure. Domingo is great in this, and I love the nomination. This is a film I love watching because of the Oscars.
• Paul Giamatti- The Holdovers: Fantastic performance in a fantastic film. While I wouldn’t be completely sad to see Giamatti win, I REALLY want Cillian to win. Giamatti is amazing though and certainly deserves any acclaim he gets.
• Cillian Murphy- Oppenheimer: Come on man, this is a career altering performance. Cillian finally gets a shot at a leading role, and he appears to be turning that opportunity into an Oscar. I sure hope that he does. He won Best Actor at the BAFTA Awards. It would be quite a shocker to see him lose.
• Jeffery Wright- American Fiction: Wright is one of my favorites and he was absolutely perfect for this role. This is a two-man race between Giamatti and Murphy, but it was nice to see a nomination for Wright.
• Biggest Snub: Leonardo Di Caprio- Killers of the Flower Moon.
• Actual Winner: Cillian Murphy (12 Confidence)
• My Winner: Cillian Murphy
Best Picture
• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest
• Biggest Snub: While not necessarily a snub, I’d say The Color Purple. I had it in my original prediction, but I had left out The Zone of Interest, which absolutely belongs..
• For each nomination I’m going to list why it should win, why it shouldn’t win, why it could win and why it won’t win.
American Fiction
• An interesting take on the Black writers in America. Not really sure what to even think of this honestly. It was certainly interested. It felt very real at times and very far out there at others.
• Why it SHOULD win- Let me preface this with saying that it’s hard for me to say any film but Oppenheimer should win. And Oppenheimer has a tremendous grip on this award. However, American Fiction did have great acting and it’s certainly interesting.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- It doesn’t quite have that Oscar feel to it. While it’s a good film, it’s not necessarily a great film. And it didn’t get many nominations in the big categories like Directing and Editing.
• Why it COULD win- It did win Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs. But realistically that is the only shot it really has of winning.
• Why it WON’T win- It doesn’t have nearly enough buzz going into the Oscars to actually pull off an upset. However, that has a lot more to do with Oppenheimer’s grip on this award than anything else.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 80:1
Anatomy of a Fall
• Loved this film. It’s a riveting story about a man who dies, and the trial of his wife accused of murdering him. Fantastic acting performances and just a great little film that everyone should see.
• Why it SHOULD win- As mentioned before, it’s hard to say anything but Oppenheimer should win. However, this is a film worthy of being here. It has tremendous acting, writing and directing so you never know.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- As I’ve mentioned many times before, this film just doesn’t quite have that Oscar feel to it. While it’s a great film that’s full of mystery and suspense, it’s not quite the Best Picture type.
• Why it COULD win- It’s probably not going to win any Oscars. Betting on it to win something else might not be a horrible bet, but betting on it to win here seems like a stretch. With that being said, it does at least have nominations in directing, writing, acting and editing.
• Why it WON’T win- It hasn’t won much of anything leading up to the Oscars. It’s rare, if not impossible, to stroll into the Oscars having won nothing and then walk away with the top prize.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 50:1
Barbie
I can’t say Barbie really did much for me. I did think Gosling and Robbie were great. I also think I
waited too long to see it and it had been built up quite a bit.
- Why it SHOULD win- Nothing out there says it should. This film feels odd because it received 8
Oscar nominations, but realistically could win nothing. There is a shot in a few categories, but this
isn’t one of them. - Why it SHOULD NOT win- I found this very interesting, but it’s the second lowest rated film on
both IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes among the Best Picture nominees. With all the hype behind this
film, it wasn’t generally a film that was loved. - Why it COULD win- Just going to be straight up here, it can’t. This is a film that landed here
because it has big stars, and it made a lot of money. It could very easily have been left out. - Why it WON’T win- No wins anywhere else. Nothing that tells you it has a chance. No directing
or editing nominations. And perhaps the biggest telling sign was when Margot Robbie wasn’t
nominated. When your film has a big lead that some pegged as the favorite but then they don’t
get nominated, that is a horrible sign for your film. - Odds of winning Best Picture: 100:1
The Holdovers
• I absolutely loved this film. It has a feel of a film like Good Will Hunting. It’s going to win at least one Oscar but may fall just a bit short here.
• Why it SHOULD win- Fantastic acting. Very easy to watch. You’ll laugh, you’ll cry, and you’ll have a hell of a time. This is the highest score on Rotten Tomatoes of any of the Best Picture nominees.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- While I don’t think it’s going to win, I can’t really think of a reason why it should not win outside of the fact that it’s going up against Oppenheimer.
• Why it COULD win- It has a slight glimmer of hope, but it’s going to fall short most likely. Not receiving a directing nomination probably doomed it. But it does have Acting, Writing and Editing nominations.
• Why it WON’T win- While it’s won some acting awards, it hasn’t won any of the big awards anywhere. This is a film that may have had a really good chance some years, but not this year.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 20:1
Killers of the Flower Moon
• This is the latest film by Martin Scorsese. While it’s good, it’s not in the same class as many of his other films. It dragged on quite a bit in the middle. It felt like an hour could have been cut out and no one would have noticed.
• Why it SHOULD win- While it’s hard to argue that it should win, it does have a star-studded cast. It has a great chance to win one or two Oscars, this certainly doesn’t feel like one.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- The audience didn’t love this film. While no one hates it, most agree that it dragged on a bit and could have been shorter. It was a very interesting story that didn’t grab the audience as much as it probably should have.
• Why it COULD win- The critics like this film, although you could make that argument about nearly all the Best Picture nominees this year. And it is still a Scorsese film after all.
• Why it WON’T win- It’s just not quite on par with Scorsese’s other films. It’s not going to win any awards outside of acting. It hasn’t won any big awards anywhere yet this year.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 70:1
Maestro
• Maestro is a film that lost a ton of steam over the award season. It is Bradly Cooper’s latest film and it’s about the famous composer Leonard Bernstein. His life was a complicated one and this film shares some intimate details about it.
• Why it SHOULD win- The acting here is quite something. Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan were both spectacular. I’m a bit shocked there hasn’t been even more buzz around their performances.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- This is the least liked film of all the Best Picture nominees. It has a 6.6 rating on IMDB and a 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. While those ratings aren’t horrible, they are hardly Best Picture winning numbers.
• Why it COULD win- The only argument here is that it did receive seven nominations and is the only film to have a nomination in both lead actor and lead actress.
• Why it WON’T win- It has not won anything from any awards. This film is pretty clearly the 9th or 10th on this list and very easily could have been left out completely.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 90:1
Oppenheimer
• What else can I say about this film at this point? There is almost no doubt that Oppenheimer wins the most Oscars this year. But will it win the biggest award of the night? The odds are certainly in its favor. There hasn’t been a film with as big of a lead in Best Picture in quite some time.
• Why it SHOULD win- It’s the soundest film of the year, and that’s not particularly close. When I say that I mean that it is superb in every category. It’s nearly a lock to win Score, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing and Sound. That’s tough for any other film to compete with.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- I can’t think of a single reason. The only complaint I’ve heard at all was that maybe it was a tad too long.
• Why it COULD win- It’s the highest rated film on IMDB from all the Best Picture nominees. It’s going to win the most Oscars this year. Nolan won the Director’s Guild. And, most importantly of all, it won the Producer’s Guild Award. That’s been a very accurate indicator for Best Picture.
• Why it WON’T win- It’s very hard to argue that it won’t. Nothing is a lock, but this is one of the biggest locks in Best Picture that we’ve had in many years.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 10:1
Past Lives
• One of the easiest films to watch from the nominations this year. I can’t see many not enjoying this film to some degree.
• Why it SHOULD win- It has a very real feel to it. It’s unlike anything else from this year. The acting is good and it’s very easy to watch.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- It doesn’t quite have that Oscar feel to it. While it’s good, it’s probably not great. Only one other nomination, which nearly always spells doom.
• Why it COULD win- It probably can’t. The only thing it has going for it is that there won’t be many out there who dislike this film. That does give it a potential advantage.
• Why it WON’T win- It didn’t receive any other nominations except writing. It’s actually the least nominated of all the Best Picture nominees this year. That’s not a recipe for success.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 60:1
Poor Things
• Originality, check. Great acting, check. Great writing, check. Weird as hell, check. This is a story that is a different take on Frankenstein. I actually loved the idea, but I wasn’t crazy about the execution.
• Why it SHOULD win- It’s a really interesting story. The acting is fantastic and it’s a film that is certainly worth seeing one time. The audience generally loves this film, but that’s a tad misleading because not many people saw this and most that did knew what they were getting themselves into.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- This is clearly not a film made for public consumption. Holy cow is it out there. And it’s incredible graphic with nudity throughout. I love artsy films, but Best Picture should be about the films that everyone loves the most. Not just a film that a small handful of people love and most have no interest.
• Why it COULD win- It has incredible reviews from both audiences and critics. There is a lot of love for director Yorgos Lanthimos. It has a shot to win a big acting award.
• Why it WON’T win- At the end of the day it’s going to end up being a bit too far out there for sure. While many will love it, some will hate it. And that is tough to overcome.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 30:1
The Zone of Interest
• This is a film that is not easy to watch, but it’s one that everyone should see. This is the story of the commandant of Auschwitz. It’s hard to imagine a lot of this really happened.
• Why it SHOULD win- Simply because of the importance of this film. It may not be quite as impactful as Schindler’s List, but it’s still a film that must be seen and not forgotten.
• Why it SHOULD NOT win- Perhaps it’s not quite big enough. It ranks 4th among audiences on IMDB and 8th on Rotten Tomatoes. It probably won’t have many hate it, but I’m not sure anyone loves it either.
• Why it COULD win- As I’ve said all too many times within this book, it probably can’t. It does have directing, editing and writing nominations.
• Why it WON’T win- No acting nominations and it’s just not going to be able to beat Oppenheimer.
• Odds of winning Best Picture: 40:1
Best Picture Prediction
• Actual Winner: Oppenheimer (19 Confidence)
• My Winner: Oppenheimer
